Antonio Gibson Ruined My Weekend

Window dressing is a recurring theme in these writings. As an amateur golfer and fantasy football general manager, I encounter a lot of it and I’m not always able to see through it. For me, sometimes the window dressing is so damn good, I’ll ignore the voice in the back of my head telling me not to waste my time, energy, or money on something half the price, just as good, and less risky. My current problem: new Washington Redskin Antonio Gibson.

If you’ve played in a dynasty fantasy football league, chances are, you’re already familiar with the Gibson legend. If you play in season-long leagues, Gibson will surely be one of the most talked-about players during your league draft. If you play daily fantasy, rest assured, Gibson will be discussed weekly as a potential flex option (at least). Over the weekend, Gibson cost me hours of productivity and sleep.

One of the leagues I play in is a dynasty. On May 15, we had our two-round inaugural rookie draft that saw 24 of the best offensive rookies entering the NFL drafted into the league. Each team has 23 roster slots and the goal is to win the league three times before everything is reset. If you enjoy obsessing over fantasy football year-round, dynasty is the way to go. A premium is put on young players with high upside and potential diamonds in the rough that can turn out to be league winners. In this league, we play half-point per reception, making pass-catching running backs the most coveted assets, and slot receivers more valuable than in standard leagues. Gibson, a third-round rookie (no. 66 overall) in the 2020 NFL draft, is a hybrid of both.

I had four picks in last week's draft and took two running backs not named Antonio Gibson. I had spent weeks prepping and didn’t really hear Gibson’s name mentioned until a couple of days before I was on the clock. By then, I had kinda, sorta already made up my mind about who I wanted to draft and Gibson didn’t interest me because of his landing spot with the Redskins, and the fact nobody really seemed to be talking him up as more than a potential late-second round gadget player with some upside. Then Gibson’s new coach, Ron Rivera, told the press he has a Christian McCaffery skill set. Then, I watched his highlight tape from Memphis.

At 6’1, 221 pounds, Gibson ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at this year’s NFL combine. He’s a physical freak with running back measurements in the same class as former number one overall pick RB Saquon Barkley and another potential generational talent in this year’s draft, RB Jonathan Taylor. But Gibson worked with wide receivers at the combine. It wasn’t until after he was drafted that the Redskins declared him a running back. For fantasy purposes, that distinction is huge.

Suddenly, Gibson went from being a mid-level receiving prospect with upside who could be scooped up off waivers for pennies, to one of the top prospects in this year’s wide receiver-heavy rookie class, just over the course of a weekend. As someone desperately needing another back in the draft, I passed on him because I thought I’d go with a more proven commodity in a relatively high draft position. In less than a week, Gibson has now vaulted into second-round draft consideration in some rookie dynasty drafts, while also being mentioned as a potential league winner, and maybe, the best backfield option for Washington with a coach who loves to utilize versatile backs.

I’d love to pick Gibson up off waivers but I have no idea how much of my free agent budget (pretend season-long money) I need to spend on him because now, everybody knows him and has seen his tape. This is how hype works. The reality of the situation is, Gibson couldn’t really get on the field in a meaningful way until his senior season because the University of Memphis backfield was occupied by two NFL talents (Darrell Henderson, Tony Pollard). Despite profiling as a capable receiver, especially at a mid-level Division-I school, Gibson struggled to find a home at the position and produced his best work out of the backfield on limited (but explosive) touches.

The Gibson case is an example of how easy it can be to swing the human brain. Remember Cordarrelle Patterson as a running back on the New England Patriots? With no context, a video of Patterson’s limited backfield load could be cut and shown to a room full of new fantasy players, and there’s a chance at least one person in that room would think Patterson is one of the best backs in the league. In reality, he was a first-round bust in the NFL as a wide receiver with no real role outside of special teams.

Gibson could turn out to be the next Gale Sayers, for all I know. But what I really find interesting for fantasy purposes is the potential malleability of position designations and how that impacts research and pricing. I think the hybrid trend is going to grow in future seasons as sports, in general, become more positionless. For now, I’m a very hesitant “buy” on Gibson, purely because he’s listed as a running back. If it turns out that he has a very limited role as a ball carrier and the running back label was just a ploy, Gibson suddenly becomes a less intriguing prospect. This player is the definition of a mood swing.